Embassy Comment
Zimbabwe Elections
25/26th June 2000 

It was a bitter disappointment that the MDC were unable to secure a working majority in the Zimbabwe parliament during the elections. However, We applaud and greatly respect the courage and resolve shown by all those candidates and their supporters who stood for the MDC, and its belief in democracy, equality, honesty and decency.

Whilst it is a cause of great joy to see a genuine opposition in parliament, the amount of seats gained is in many ways the worst possible result, especially when taken from the perspective of the white population, and the commercial farmers in particular.

The MDC have secured enough seats to prevent Mugabe from changing the Constitution, but there are not sufficient seats to prevent Mugabe and ZANU (PF) from doing just about whatever else they like.

Although denounced by the international observers as not being free and fair, the election of so many opposition candidates will allow the Western countries to over-look the worst of the pre-election gerrymandering, and allow the false belief that genuine democracy has actually arrived in Zimbabwe to take root, a complete nonsense if only for the fact that Mugabe appoints 30 members out of 150 to parliament whatever happens.

ZANU (PF) will now most likely go for a two-pronged attack, they will concentrate on splintering the opposition along racial and tribal lines, and at the same time, carry out  a fundamental reform of the party, in order to steal support from the opposition.

Prior to the next presidential election, Mugabe will be 'retired' and allowed to disappear with his ill-gotten gains, whilst a new ZANU (PF) candidate, running under the guise of a reformer and 'new broom', will seek to out flank any opposition candidate.

This pretence of democracy in Zimbabwe will also allow the Western countries to begin to send aid to Zimbabwe once again, which will of course increase greatly once Mugabe is replaced. The UK and the EU will supply funds for the compensation  of white commercial farmers who have been, and will be, subject to further land seizures.

In order to get this money, Mugabe will soften his tone, as he has done by saying that he will only seize land from farmers owning more than one farm, a far more acceptable policy to Zimbabwe's and Africa's apologists generally in the West.

The heaviest losers in this election will be the white commercial farmers, and the white population in general. The farmers who still find themselves with land will be treated like dogs at a mediaeval banquet, thrown a few scraps or able to catch anything interesting which just happens to fall from the table. They will also be milked by Mugabe, as they have always been, for the forex they produce.

We sincerely hope that we do not see a split in the ranks of the commercial farmers, whereby those with one farm count their blessings and keep their head down, whilst their friends and neighbours with interests in more than one farm feel the full heat of Mugabes future land grabs.

This will come under ZANU (PF's) plans to splinter the opposition, so bear that in mind, as Mugabe and ZANU (PF) still perceives the white population to be a big threat to his control of the country.

This election will enable Mugabe and ZANU (PF) to take on the mantle of legitimacy and many countries will be only to happy to believe it, and interest in Zimbanwe and its affairs from the world community will disappear once again, unless of course there is something equally newsworthy occurring, such as a civil war or assassination of a prominent individual.

In conclusion, it is with a heavy heart that we have to say the white population should perhaps now, as a matter of urgency, begin to look at options overseas, especially those involved in the agricultural sector. If the donor funds do materialize in respect of compensation for land grabs, it should perhaps be taken and used to re-locate abroad, maybe Zambia or Mozambique, or the more popular Western countries. As those who left in 1980 have proved, there is life after Zimbabwe, and in many instances a much better one.

Whilst we wish the people of Zimbabwe well generally and hope that they can grow a true democracy, we cannot help but feel that we may find ourselves back here once again with South Africa, ten or fifteen years down the line. We pray that we are wrong, and indeed proved wrong about all of the above. We do not want to see more Zimbabweans forced into emigration and go through the often difficult process of adjusting to a new land.