Mbeki's Cave In
Why President Mbeki of South Africa caved in over Mugabe

28^th March 2002

WHEN a weary President Thabo Mbeki flew into a wet and blustery London at 5am on Tuesday last week he was left in no doubt by Western leaders, his closest aides and diplomats that the Zimbabwean crisis was damaging his reputation and putting his plans for Africa's rejuvenation in jeopardy.

Mbeki's seemingly soft stance on Zimbabwe's severely flawed presidential election had drawn howls of protests from around the world.

After briefings with South Africa's High Commissioner to London, Lindiwe Mabuza, in which reference was made to the unprecedented condemnation of South Africa in the international Press and diplomatic circles, Mbeki received a call from British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

In the tense 10-minute call, Blair bluntly told Mbeki he was still committed to being Mbeki's closest ally on the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), but would not continue backing the plan if there was no action on Zimbabwe from Mbeki.

''Blair made it clear that after the position of Africa on Zimbabwe, other Western leaders would laugh the plan - and him - out of court if he pretended that there was no concern on the handling of Zimbabwe,'' a Downing Street source said.

Mbeki also spoke to Canada's Prime Minister, Jean Chretien, who said the Group of Eight (G8) would probably refuse to work with African leaders on the NEPAD if they did not change tack on Zimbabwe.

The G8, with the enthusiastic support of Blair and Chretien, is expected formally to back NEPAD at its meeting in Canada in June.

By the time Mbeki, Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo and Australia's Prime Minister John Howard sat down at the Commonwealth head office in Marlborough House at 2pm to hammer out the Commonwealth response to Zimbabwe, Mbeki had concluded that he had to give his Western allies a symbolic gesture - without damaging his standing with Mugabe.

From the onset, Mbeki gave no indication he would compromise on his stance on Zimbabwe, which was that he needed more time to hammer out a deal with Mugabe on a government of national unity.

Mbeki told Howard and Don McKinnon, the Commonwealth Secretary-General, that the calls for sanctions against Zimbabwe would hurt ordinary Zimbabweans. He also said Zimbabwe's suspension would not serve any purpose in the long term.

Before going into the meeting, Mbeki had also received a call from one of Blair's most trusted friends, twice-fired former Cabinet member Peter Mandelson, who pleaded for a compromise on Mugabe and indicated that many in the Labour Cabinet were sympathetic to Mbeki's position.

Mandelson apparently repeated remarks he had stated in an article that day that Mbeki's position on Zimbabwe had to be respected because he knew the region better than most.

After two hours of negotiations, Mbeki's ally, Obasanjo, caved in to Howard, agreeing that some action had to be taken.

But Mbeki remained steadfast, saying any action that would alienate Mugabe would be disastrous.

Howard, however, insisted there should be sanctions against Mugabe and an indefinite suspension from the Commonwealth.

''He read out the agreements that had been made at Coolum in Australia and said this is what we said we would do if the Zimbabwe election was not free and fair. 'Let us play by the book,' he said.

'We must suspend Zimbabwe and impose sanctions,'' said a diplomat at the South African High Commission, who added that Howard had been almost schoolmasterish in his approach to the matter.

Commonwealth, Zimbabwean, British and South African diplomats who were present last Tuesday said Mbeki insisted there be only a year's suspension of Zimbabwe - to be reviewed within the year - and that this should come with a promise from Western leaders that they would provide food aid to Zimbabwe.

Mbeki also insisted that an agreement on food aid be included in a statement to be issued after the meeting.

Howard left the meeting and called Cabinet colleagues in Australia on whether he should agree to such food aid.

He agreed to provide US$2 million (about Z$110 million) worth of food aid, and to ensure that other Western countries did the same.

Howard also called Blair, but details of their conversation were not available.

After three-and-a-half hours, the leaders agreed on a statement, which Howard read out to journalists after the meeting.

Despite prompting, Mbeki and Obasanjo did not speak at the Press conference attended by about 200 journalists from around the world.

''The committee has decided to suspend Zimbabwe from the councils of the Commonwealth for a period of one year with immediate effect . . .

''It's at the more severe range of the actions available to us. It maintains the Commonwealth's credibility and it maintains its consistency,'' Howard said.

Mbeki, who was apparently told by his doctor that he had been working and travelling too much, left immediately after the Press conference.

He went to the Dorchester Hotel, where he was instructed to rest for the night, before flying to the United Nations conference on financing for development, in Monterrey, Mexico.